In picking Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his vice presidential nominee, Donald Trump consolidated the realignment of the Republican Party over the past decade.
Sometimes, vice presidential picks help provide a sense of balance, such as George H. W. Bush in 1980, Joe Biden in 2008, or Mike Pence in 2016. Other times, they offer accentuation—to emphasize the top of the ticket. That was Bill Clinton’s approach in 1992, when he chose a fellow Southern technocrat baby boomer in Al Gore.
Vance is an accentuation choice. In his brief time in the Senate, Vance has become one of the leading voices for populist policies on immigration, trade, and corporate concentration. If he returns to the White House in 2025, Trump will have only a single term in office, and picking Vance can be seen as a kind of brand extension—anointing a governing partner who could help channel (and extend) Trump’s political impulses. Deeply invested in public policy, Vance has many allies in the Beltway’s burgeoning populist policy network, which has long pushed for his candidacy.
The past decade of political disruption has broken and made many political careers. Rocketing from a Senate candidate in 2022 to the Republican vice presidential nominee today, Vance has been well-positioned to benefit from the populist turn. His roots in Appalachia and blue-collar background represent important pillars of the evolving Republican electorate. His resume also seems designed to appeal to Trump: military service, elite educational record, business success, celebrity (he authored a bestselling memoir that was adapted into a film), and social-media sizzle.
Vance’s early criticisms of Trump in 2016, since retracted, have long been documented in the press, but an abiding theme of his public career is concern with working-class Americans. In a National Review article from 2013 (note the year), Vance drew attention to a crisis of opportunity in many blue-collar communities. In Hillbilly Elegy, Vance often accented cultural issues as driving many of these economic outcomes, but as a senator he has also addressed questions of political economy.
The trajectory of Vance’s career mirrors a broader change in the Republican Party. In part because of changes in domestic and global politics, many Republicans are thinking hard about how to revise the GOP’s policy program. The populist economic components of the party’s 2024 platform—from calls for pro-manufacturing measures to a pledge to protect entitlements—highlight that transition.
Trump’s announcement of Vance noted the senator’s work for the “American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond.” Many of those states proved essential for Trump’s 2016 win and could be decisive in 2024. Choosing Vance might indicate that Trump is focusing on the Midwest as a key battleground. The pick also draws another contrast with President Biden’s reelection effort. A Trump–Vance ticket offers a distinctive policy brand, while the Democratic Party remains torn internally (including about whether Biden should even remain the nominee).
In building out their support with the working class, Republicans have a political opportunity. Vance’s selection could show that the GOP is serious about formulating a rigorous agenda that will help American workers. Yet, the party also faces certain challenges. Many Americans, including many working-class families, are averse to the idea of radical political change. To be viable, a second Trump term may have to emphasize continuity, as well as disruption—regime preservation, amid reform, instead of regime change. The attempted assassination of Trump over the weekend only accentuates the dangers that intense political conflict can pose to democracy. To win over the public, the Trump-led Republican Party needs to show that it can recover the resources of hope and national fellowship.
Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images