You could consume hundreds of hours of television news and spend weeks reading newspaper election coverage and still not know that the economy is by far the most important issue on voters’ minds. The media focus on culture-war issues and tend to portray the election as a fight for “the soul of the nation.” In reality, voters are far more concerned about things like grocery and housing prices.
Polling data make this clear. Fifty-two percent of voters in a recent Gallup poll described the economy as “extremely important” to their vote; no other issue earned that tag from a majority. Another 38 percent of voters rated the economy as “very important.” Notably, Gallup found that the share of voters rating the economy as “extremely important” was higher in this year’s poll than that recorded in each of the closest-to-the-election polls for presidential elections dating back to 1996, with the exception of that conducted amid the Great Recession in 2008.
Gallup’s results were not an outlier. A September Pew Research Center poll found that 81 percent of registered voters described the economy as very important to their vote, the largest share for any issue; the runner-up was health care, with 65 percent. An Associated Press and NORC poll similarly found the economy was “[o]ne of the most important issues” for 79 percent of voters, again the largest share recorded for any issue; health care again came next at 56 percent.
Voters’ specific concern is inflation. When asked to clarify the most important economic issue, 69 percent said the cost of living, according to an Ipsos poll; no other economic issue cracked double digits. Rising prices are also a particular concern among the young. A September NBC poll found that inflation or cost-of-living was the most important issue overall for almost a third of under 30 voters; no other issue garnered more than 11 percent.
This all should be positive news for Donald Trump. According to a recent New York Times/Siena poll, likely voters named the former president more trustworthy on the economy than they did Harris by a seven percentage-point margin.
But there are worrying signs for Trump on the economic front. First, voters believe the economy is improving. According to a July Ipsos poll, 44 percent of voters said the economy was doing well, up from just 28 percent two years earlier. In September, inflation came down to the lowest level since just after Joe Biden entered office. The unemployment rate remains near historic lows, despite having crept slightly upward.
The main issue for Trump may be voters focused on non-economic issues. Contrary to the media portrayal of Republicans as obsessed with the culture war, Democrats tend to care much more consistently about issues such as abortion, race, and transgender policy than do Republicans.
The economy is still important for Democratic voters, but they find it less salient than they do other topics. The Gallup poll, for example, found that 36 percent of Democratic voters consider the economy extremely important, the same proportion who apply that label to climate change (only 5 percent of Republicans agree). Democratic voters were more likely to describe abortion, the Supreme Court, and the state of American democracy as “extremely important” than they were the economy. In recent years, Democrats have tried to win elections by assembling a coalition concerned with cultural issues, along with a smaller cadre of left-leaning bread-and-butter voters. That’s their strategy again in this election.
The fact that most media figures are progressives explains why the news is filled with discussions of abortion and democracy instead of the economy. Yet most voters still care more about things like their jobs and groceries than the Supreme Court. Those kitchen-table issues may not get proportionate media coverage, but they will be central to what happens on November 5.
Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images