Boosted by a surge in foreign migrant border-crossing, New York State’s population has rebounded from its post-pandemic lows since 2022, according to updated Census Bureau estimates. As of mid-2024, the Empire State was home to 19.8 million residents, reflecting an increase of 129,881 over the previous year.
The new statewide population numbers reflect significant growth in the Census Bureau’s previous estimates of “international migration” to all states since 2020, producing what the bureau described in its news release as “the fastest annual population growth the nation has seen since 2001.” The national population increased 1 percent, to 340 million, with 84 percent of the rise attributed to moves across the nation’s borders—reflecting the looser enforcement of the Biden administration following a significant reduction in crossings during Donald Trump’s first presidential term.
In New York’s case, total foreign immigration since 2020 has been re-estimated at 519,395—including 207,161 during the 12 months ending June 30. Among all 50 states, New York took in the fourth-highest number of foreign immigrants in this period, exceeded only by California (361,057), Florida (411,322), and Texas (262,618). New York’s 7.4 percent share of total foreign immigrants last year was slightly higher than its 5.9 percent share of total U.S. population.
The census data do not break down estimated foreign immigrant totals by legal status, nor do they indicate local destinations; but New York’s statewide number was no doubt inflated mainly by the mass influx of illegal migrants to New York City since early 2022. Including all migrants, regardless of legal residency status, the Empire State’s population in mid-2024 was up about 163,000 from its post-pandemic low of 19.7 million in 2022. Even with that uptick, however, New York is one of only seven states to have experienced a net population drop since the April 2020 Census—losing 336,524 residents, or 1.7 percent, the biggest loss of any state in both absolute and percentage terms. With a population roughly twice the size of New York’s, California has experienced a much smaller decline of just 124,411 residents, or 0.3 percent. West Virginia and Louisiana are the only other states to have experienced 2020–24 population shrinkage exceeding 1 percent of their 2020 census counts.
The main driver of demographic decline for New York State remains what it has been since the 1970s: “domestic migration,” the net outflow of New Yorkers to the rest of the country compared with the number moving into New York from other states. During the year ending last June 30, the Census Bureau says, New York lost nearly 121,000 more people than it gained from other states—bringing its total net domestic migration outflow to nearly 1 million since the April 2020 census. In relative terms, New York’s domestic migration loss since 2020 has been the largest of any state, at 4.8 percent of base population. California’s much larger net outflow of 1.5 million residents represented 3.7 percent of its 2020 population; only seven other states had 2020–24 domestic migration losses exceeding 1 percent of the 2020 census level. The latest estimates do not break down population flows by origin and destination states, but the long-term trend has seen New Yorkers move in large numbers to the southeast, especially Florida, and to neighboring states, led by New Jersey.
After peaking at roughly 300,000 in 2021, New York’s domestic migration outflow has dropped by half in the past two years, reflecting a broader national slowdown in interstate moves that may be explained in part by the inflation surge and sharp rise in long-term mortgage interest rates that began in early 2022, making homes less affordable on the heels of price increases even in popular destinations.
As shown in the chart below, the other major components of population change are births and deaths, which make up what the Census Bureau labels “natural change.”
Except for a three-month interval at the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, the Empire State consistently has recorded more births than deaths, yielding annual “natural” increases close to the national median rates. From 2023 to 2024, New York’s crude birth rate of 10.3 per 1,000 residents was slightly lower than the national average of 10.6, ranking 29th among all states; previous substate estimate data, which will be updated next spring, have indicated that birthrates are highest in New York counties with larger numbers of foreign immigrants and ultra-orthodox Jewish enclaves.
Other notable trends from the Census Bureau’s 2024 state estimates:
- In absolute terms, New York’s population gain in the latest year was the fifth-largest of any state, but its growth rate of 0.7 percent ranked slightly below the national median.
- The largest population gains were in two other states whose total populations already surpassed New York’s: Texas (+562,941, or 1.8 percent) and Florida (+467,347, or 2 percent).
- On a regional basis in descending order, states in the South led with population growth of 1.8 million, or 1.4 percent; followed by the West, with growth of 688,000, or 0.9 percent; the Northeast, with growth of about 425,000, or 0.8 percent; and the Midwest, with growth of 410,000, or 0.6 percent.
Annual state population estimates are subject to change based on adjustments to the Census Bureau’s estimation methodology—especially when it comes to measuring foreign immigration. But assuming no change in New York’s well-established, long-term trend of domestic migration losses, and given the incoming Trump administration’s commitment to tightening borders, New York’s population slide is about to resume.
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