Eric Adams is in survival mode. Following his meeting with Trump administration border czar Tom Homan and local federal law enforcement officials, he announced an executive order restoring ICE’s ability to operate on Rikers Island. It’s a stunning reversal—but one that acknowledges reality. A majority of New Yorkers, according to the latest Manhattan Institute poll, support tougher immigration enforcement. Adams knows that time is running out and his options are limited: move to the center—fast—or be replaced.
His timing is no accident. The mayor’s approval ratings have cratered, his administration is mired in scandal, and critics from left and right see him as a failed leader. But when his challengers argue that Adams’s biggest vulnerability is corruption, they’re missing the bigger picture. His real problem isn’t ethics; it’s that voters don’t believe he’s delivered on crime, quality of life, affordability, or the migrant crisis. They want a mayor who will fix what’s broken.
This dynamic is setting the stage for a political realignment in the city. Many of Adams’s loudest critics in the upcoming Democratic primary are running to his left on crime and immigration, embracing the very policies that have fueled New Yorkers’ frustration and disillusionment. The data tell the story: nearly six in ten New Yorkers believe that the city should make it easier to commit people experiencing psychiatric crises; seven in ten favor deporting criminal illegal immigrants; and eight in ten support more cops on the subway. If Adams had governed the way he campaigned in 2021, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Meantime, recent moves from President Trump’s Justice Department underscore the changing dynamics. On the one hand, the DOJ dropped its investigation into Adams, removing a significant legal threat. On the other, it has now turned its sights on New York State and Governor Kathy Hochul, filing a lawsuit that accuses state officials of prioritizing illegal immigrants over American citizens. Hochul’s reaction—cancelling a planned meeting with Trump—further illustrates how entrenched the state’s leadership remains in progressive orthodoxy, even as voter sentiment moves against them. Adams, by contrast, appears to be acknowledging that public patience with these policies is wearing thin.
But a half-hearted pivot won’t be enough to save Adams. Voters don’t trust him to lead decisively. His administration has been plagued by indecision, inconsistency, and a failure to articulate a clear governing vision. If he wants to rebound, he needs to commit fully to the policy agenda that New Yorkers support. A few rhetorical adjustments and gimmicky press conferences won’t cut it.
And if Adams doesn’t fully embrace a course correction, someone else will. Former governor Andrew Cuomo has already begun positioning himself as the law-and-order alternative, hinting at a potential comeback run in which he would reclaim the mantle of tough, results-driven governance. Cuomo has lots of baggage of his own, of course. His handling of the pandemic, including the nursing-home scandal, and his personal controversies remain serious liabilities. Yet against a floundering Adams, Cuomo suddenly looks like the adult in the room—or, at least the only other well-known candidate in the race who isn’t running far to the left of the electorate.
This is the broader lesson for any Democrat hoping to win over disaffected voters. The 2025 mayoral race won’t be about who can prove his progressive bona fides but about who can convince New Yorkers he’s serious about restoring order, enforcing the law, and making New York livable again. Whether Adams can convincingly reinvent himself as that leader, or whether he has left an opening for someone else to seize that opportunity, remains to be seen.
Photo by John Lamparski/Getty Images
