The scenes from the wildfires devastating Los Angeles are apocalyptic. As of this writing, more than 1,000 homes, businesses, and other buildings have been destroyed, and two people have died. Firefighters have battled, with little success, flames spread by hurricane-force winds from Pacific Palisades and Santa Monica—wealthy areas in western L.A. near the Santa Monica Recreation Area—to the east in Eaton (near Pasadena) and toward the Cattle Canyon Bride, located near the San Bernadino National Forest.
Though the cause of the current blaze has yet to be established, commentators are already making familiar claims that climate change is igniting more wildfires in California—a thesis with no basis in fact. Some state and local officials even argue that high winds caused the wildfires. Not so: wind, by itself, doesn’t create sparks that trigger wildfires, though it certainly worsens them once they’ve started, as is happening here.
The most common causes of recent wildfires in the Golden State have been human activities (including arson) and poorly maintained power lines, such as those belonging to the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), which caused the 2018 Camp Fire that killed 85 people. Another likely culprit: bad forest management. Last April, Los Angeles County unveiled its Community Forest Management Plan. The plan is heavy on buzzwords about the need to ensure an “equitable tree canopy” and “environmental justice” but light on strategies to reduce wildfire risk.
Though some good work has been done in that regard, such as by the Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy, the latest wildfires demonstrate the ongoing failure of Governor Gavin Newsom to manage the problem. In 2019, Newsom issued an executive order to devote more than $1 billion to wildfire prevention. But a 2021 investigation found that the governor had misled the public about the acreage of fuel-reduction projects completed in the state: just 11,399 acres, versus his claim of 90,000.
Various studies purport to “prove” that wildfires are increasing in number and destructiveness. But the trend since 1987 has been fewer wildfires each year (see figure below). The acres burned have climbed upward, though that trend is skewed by the 4.5 million acres burned in 2020 and 2.5 million acres burned in 2021. Acreage burned in 2022–2023 totalled some of the lowest levels in the last 40 years. A longer-running trendline shows that the number of state wildfires peaked in the 1920s.
That the acreage burned is increasing even as the number of wildfires has decreased is not the result of climate change. Rather, it is the combined result of efforts to suppress wildfires and environmentalists’ demands to leave forests undisturbed. California’s Mediterranean climate, with its historically wet winters followed by months of dry conditions, heightens the likelihood of wildfires. But instead of removing dead and diseased trees and undergrowth, the state, following environmentalist restrictions, has allowed that natural fuel to build up, creating the conditions for explosive wildfires. Land-use restrictions have also forced development nearer wildfire-prone areas, worsening the damage and loss of life.
A 2022 state audit and report found that California electric utilities’ efforts to reduce wildfires were inadequate, and that the state’s Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety had approved “seriously deficient” wildfire prevention plans. The utilities, including Southern California Edison, which serves the region around Los Angeles, have been burying their transmission and distribution systems underground, but the costs of doing so far exceed those associated with tree-trimming near power lines.
As with its singular focus on green energy, California’s wildfire prevention efforts have been costly and impractical, with tragic results. Whether sparked by fireworks, powerlines, lightning, or arson, the conflagrations devastating Los Angeles are just the latest result of decades of ill-conceived policies.
Photo by Apu Gomes/Getty Images