In the election’s wake, California remains part of the Left Coast, clinging to the western edge of Trump world, more an outlier than a trendsetter. Nearly 60 percent of Golden State voters picked the homegrown presidential candidate, and solid majorities voted “blue no matter who” in other races, as well.
And yet, the election shows that California may be turning a somewhat lighter shade of blue. More than 70 percent of voters—and a majority in liberal San Francisco—backed Proposition 36, the ballot measure that toughens the state’s lenient criminal-sentencing laws. In Los Angeles, voters tossed out the George Soros-backed district attorney George Gascón by a remarkable 20-point margin, replacing him with Nathan Hochman, who ran as an independent but had run for statewide office as a Republican as recently as 2022. In Alameda County, home to Oakland, voters recalled yet another Soros district attorney, Pamela Price. Oakland voters, disgusted by rising crime, also recalled Mayor Sheng Thao. Both lost their races by a two-to-one margin. These votes followed the recall of San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin, as well as several radical school board members, in 2022.
Nor are these the only signs of California’s race to the center. A handful of Republican representatives may have managed to win reelection this week despite being heavily outspent by Democrats. Results in high-tech California are reported at horseback speed. The Republicans may even pick up the seat currently held by Representative Katie Porter (who was not running for reelection).
Two issues seem to be driving California’s shift: crime and the weakening economy. In both areas, voters seem to have soured on progressive “solutions.” Not only did voters overwhelmingly support strengthening criminal sentencing; they also rejected several left-wing ballot measures, including one that would have raised the minimum wage to $18 an hour (Prop. 32) and another that would have repealed the state ban on local rent control laws (Prop. 33). Economic reality is suddenly back on the agenda in the Golden State.
The state certainly needs a dose of reality. Once the nation’s economic trendsetter, California now consistently lags the U.S. and is increasingly dependent on a small group of tech firms, their investors, and employees to drive what economic dynamism remains. Research from the Drucker Institute at Claremont Graduate University suggests that, since 2019, the state has either lost jobs or failed to add them in virtually every basic industry, from manufacturing to finance to business services. A mere 5,400 private-sector jobs have been created since 2022, with only government-funded education and health care showing significant job growth.
Virtually all of California’s economic bulwarks are crumbling. Entertainment, L.A.’s signature industry and a key funding source for progressives, is losing jobs, including at Disney’s formerly golden Pixar Animation Studios, as film production moves to other states and countries. California’s once-promising space industry was also kneecapped by SpaceX’s recent departure to Texas.
Even California’s vaunted tech industry seems to be in retreat, seeing a recent decline in job growth. According to analysis by Zen Business, Texas and Florida are now the country’s high-growth tech hotspots and are also attracting the most tech workers. Income growth in these states is outpacing California’s.
The impact of this economic sluggishness is evident particularly in the long-time commercial hubs of San Francisco and Los Angeles. Despite the hype about its connections with the blossoming AI industry, San Francisco suffers the nation’s highest office-vacancy rate and the largest percentage loss of residents. L.A., as Rodney Dangerfield would put it, is no bargain, either. Once the country’s premier urban growth center, the city and county, home to 10 million people, have fewer residents than they did in 2010.Indeed, Los Angeles County has as many residents today as it had in 1985. The California State Department of Finance now projects that L.A. County’s population will drop from 10,013,000 in 2020 to 8,284,000 in 2060, a loss of 1,729,000.
L.A. was once a middle-class haven with a broad industrial base, but it now suffers the state’s worst poverty rates and one of the worst nationally. Homeless encampments dot the city; meantime, empty, unfinished luxury high-rises in downtown L.A. are covered with elaborate graffiti. To make matters worse, the city is essentially bankrupt. (But these fiscal problems pale in comparison with the overall state and local debt situation in California, which exceeds $500 billion.)
Though Hollywood types show few signs of discontent, California’s decline has begun to shake up the reigning political orthodoxy in Silicon Valley. The Harris–Walz campaign appealed to established firms like Google, but many others, including start-ups, are beginning to switch political sides. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and industrialist Elon Musk are just two of the more prominent techies changing course.
Less famous Californians seem increasingly upset with their leaders, as well. Many are choosing, like Musk, to pull up stakes and migrate elsewhere. Among them, according to an analysis of IRS data, are many middle-income families still in their childbearing years. Those who remain are having fewer children: birthrates in San Francisco and Los Angeles are the lowest and second-lowest, respectively, among the 53 largest markets in the U.S. Los Angeles County, for example, has nearly 750,000 fewer people under 25 than in 2000. This is not a good look for the one-time city of the future.
Los Angeles is also losing the minority and foreign-born residents who long sustained its economic and demographic vitality. Instead, African Americans and Latinos are flocking to places like Houston, Dallas–Ft. Worth, and Miami, essentially casting votes of no confidence in the Golden State.
Most Californians (57 percent) believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction, up from 37 percent in 2020. Four in ten are considering leaving for good. According to a 2021 University of Southern California survey, 10 percent of Angelenos plan to move out this year. Younger Angelenos, according to one UCLA survey, are even more dissatisfied than older residents.
Given these realities, one would expect a greater political backlash against the ruling Democrats. California’s Gavin Newsom is now so unpopular that some of his own legislators avoid being seen with him. Putting a finger to the shifting political winds and bucking green opposition, Newsom kept the state’s nuclear and natural gas power plants in operation and has even suggested amending the state’s landmark environmental law. The governor also vetoed a bill that would have legalized “shooting alleys”—so-called safe drug-injection sites—in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Oakland. Many of his progressive allies denounced the veto.
The elevation of Republicans like new L.A. District Attorney Hochman (nominally an independent) could provide some of what the state GOP has been missing for years, suggests longtime pollster Arnold Steinberg: a deeper bench of well-known local officials. But it’s still a stretch to see how Hochman or any other candidate elected to a nonpartisan office could shift the state’s politics in the near term. Recent speculation about the next governor suggests a few leading candidates: radical left-wing attorney general Rob Bonta, retiring congresswoman Katie Porter, and, yes, Kamala Harris. A possible run by billionaire Rick Caruso offers some hope of a more centrist candidate.
Conservatives might be tempted to dismiss California, treating it as a doomed People’s Republic clinging to the edges of Red America. But even amid so many negative trends, California remains an engine of innovation, a major cultural center, and a vital bridge to the growing economies of the Pacific Rim. Californians need a California revival—and so does America.
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