The longer Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft remains stranded at the International Space Station, the worse things look for the beleaguered aerospace manufacturer. In two previous City Journal articles, I’ve described how the vehicle’s first crewed mission, launched on June 5, encountered what initially appeared to be manageable glitches, and how those problems turned out to be far more serious than NASA or Boeing first acknowledged. Two months later, it is becoming clear that Starliner’s technical woes quite possibly mean that the craft is unfit to carry humans, which would force NASA to bring its two crewmembers home on a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft. That stunning reversal could doom Boeing’s hopes to compete in the growing commercial space sector.
Starliner astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore were slated to spend roughly a week at the ISS after their shakedown cruise in the new spacecraft. Despite initial problems involving helium leaks and several failed thrusters, most observers expected NASA to approve the spacecraft for continued crewed missions. That would have been good news for Boeing, which has weathered years of criticism over its civilian airliner business’s safety issues. And NASA is eager to have a second company, after Elon Musk’s SpaceX, capable of flying U.S. astronauts to the space station as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew program. But those hopes are now very much in doubt as NASA wrestles with concerns about the safety of Boeing’s problematic spacecraft.
Instead of spending a week at the space station, Williams and Wilmore have seen their return to earth delayed multiple times. The astronauts have now spent two months at the ISS while NASA and Boeing assess problems with some of the spacecraft’s 28 reaction control system (RCS) thrusters, which control the vehicle’s precise movements in orbit. Five of those thrusters failed as Starliner approached the ISS for docking on June 6, forcing the ship’s crew to back away from the space station, troubleshoot the problem, and then dock the spacecraft manually.
A long series of tests has not fully explained why the thrusters cut out, but both NASA and Boeing say that four of the five troubled units are now working. Engineers are also trying to understand multiple leaks in a system that uses helium to pressurize the thrusters. If more than a handful of these units were to fail during the undocking process, the uncontrollable craft might damage the ISS. And if Starliner can’t maintain its proper orientation before and during re-entry, that could result in the catastrophic loss of craft and crew.
The stakes are high, in other words. Yet, in a long series of upbeat press conferences and vague public statements, both Boeing and NASA have tended to downplay the severity of the problems. “Those are pretty small, really, issues to deal with,” Boeing’s vice president and manager of the company’s Commercial Crew Program, Mark Nappi, said soon after Starliner’s nail-biting rendezvous with the ISS. In early July, NASA’s Commercial Crew program manager, Steve Stich, dismissed suggestions that NASA might not allow the crew to fly home on the Boeing craft. “[T]here’s really been no discussion with sending another Dragon to rescue the Starliner crew,” he said.
But according to eye-opening reports by Ars Technica reporter Eric Berger, that’s exactly what NASA is contemplating. Both NASA and Boeing are grappling with what Berger describes as “the toughest of calls.” At this point, the decision could go either way, and much hangs on which path NASA chooses. If the agency decides Williams and Wilmore must return on a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, that would certainly be a feather in Musk’s cap. SpaceX is justifiably proud of its impressive record as the only company certified to fly NASA astronauts to space. And it would be yet another black eye for Boeing, which seeks to join SpaceX as an approved spaceflight partner for the agency.
NASA and Boeing bristle when reporters describe Starliner and its crew as being “stranded” at the ISS. But as the delays mount from weeks to months, it’s hard to find another word to describe the situation. It is becoming clear that bringing Williams and Wilmore home is more complex than simply strapping them into the Dragon capsule currently docked at the ISS. For one thing, they would need spacesuits compatible with that spacecraft. SpaceX has selected two suits that will fit the stranded astronauts, but those remain on earth for now. Moreover, moving the Starliner astronauts to a different spacecraft would throw a wrench in the intricate scheduling of ISS crew rotation and resupply flights.
The next Crew Dragon mission is scheduled to bring four new astronauts to the station in about two weeks. But according to Ars Technica, NASA officials are “contemplating moving the Crew-9 mission from its current date of August 18 to September 24, a significant slip.” NASA also has to worry about overpopulation on the ISS. By late September, Williams and Wilmore will have been living at the space station—and using up precious food, water, and oxygen—for three months longer than planned. Berger reports that NASA is considering reducing the Crew-9 mission from four astronauts to two.
Then there is the problem of getting Starliner back to earth. The ISS always needs an adequate number of lifeboat spacecraft attached to the station to ferry all crewmembers home in the event of a collision with space debris or other emergency. (NASA says it considers Starliner adequate for this kind of emergency use.) But if Starliner is deemed unsafe, NASA can’t leave it attached to one of its crucial docking ports available for crewed spacecraft. The ISS will need that port for future Dragon missions.
In theory, it ought to be straightforward to send the Starliner capsule back to earth without a crew. After all, a different Starliner capsule successfully flew an uncrewed test mission to the station in 2022. But Berger reports that, for reasons not yet disclosed, the Starliner vehicle now attached to the ISS does not have the capacity to undock and navigate autonomously. Sources tell Ars Technica that updating the vehicle’s software to handle these tricky procedures is a “non-trivial” task that could take weeks. (This may explain why NASA is reportedly considering delaying the Crew-9 mission.) Then NASA will need to be assured that the Starliner vehicle’s modified software—and balky RCS thrusters—won’t malfunction in some way that could damage the space station during the undocking process.
Two months after Starliner docked with the ISS in an apparently successful (if dicey) mission, the space vehicle’s seemingly minor glitches appear to be cascading into massive problems. Starliner’s unreliability not only affects Williams and Wilmore’s mission but also seems to be interfering with the broader operation of the ISS and its crews. It throws Boeing’s future as a partner in NASA’s spaceflight plans (not to mention the company’s overall reputation) into serious doubt. And it casts a shadow over NASA’s hopes to expand its Commercial Crew program, which many see as the agency’s best hope for making human space exploration sustainable.
Boeing didn’t respond to City Journal’s request for comment. But on August 2—perhaps in response to recent negative coverage—the company issued a press release reiterating that it “remains confident in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to return safely with crew.” The release listed dozens of tests the company has performed—both in orbit and on the ground—since Starliner’s problems emerged during the current mission. These include thousands of computer simulations, “hot fire” tests of thrusters, measurements of “helium leak rate data,” and many more.
Boeing no doubt hoped to inspire confidence with the long list of tests it is performing. But, for many observers, the press release instead raised an obvious question: Why didn’t Boeing check all these boxes before launching this star-crossed Starliner mission?
UPDATE:
Late on Tuesday, August 6 (shortly after this article was posted), NASA released a statement confirming that it will delay the launch of the Crew-9 mission to the ISS to “no earlier than Tuesday, Sept. 24.” As originally planned, that mission would bring four new astronauts to the station on a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft. The statement doesn’t specify whether the postponed flight will carry the full complement of crew.
The press release also acknowledges that “no decisions have been made regarding Starliner’s return.” In words that echo several previous statements, NASA says that ground crews are “taking their time” to analyze the results of recent tests and to “confirm system reliability ahead of Starliner’s return to Earth.” In a post on X, Eric Berger adds that “Administrator Bill Nelson tells me he will have the final say on how Butch and Suni come home.”
Photo by Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP via Getty Images